CALGARY HOUSING MARKET FORECAST 2026: WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW.

• Builders ramped up construction
• Inventory rose sharply
• Demand cooled slightly
• Buyers gained more leverage

This is exactly how housing cycles normally work.

CREB describes 2026 as a year of “adjustment to higher supply.”

2. 2025 Was Weaker Than Expected
CREB originally forecast 26,850 sales for 2025.
Actual sales came in at 22,751.

Price growth also underperformed forecasts:

• Detached: +0.8% (forecast +2.9%)
• Semi-detached: +2.5% (forecast +3.4%)
• Townhomes: −2.1% (forecast +3.1%)
• Apartments: −2.7% (forecast +1.8%)

Why?

• Weaker-than-expected migration
• No spring interest-rate cuts
• Heightened economic uncertainty
• Record-high housing starts
• Heavy supply in condos and rentals

3. Calgary Demand Is Now “Normal” (Not Weak)
Compared to Toronto and Vancouver, Calgary is actually holding up well.

Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio (S/NL):

• Calgary: 56%
• Vancouver: 37%
• Toronto: 34%

A ratio around 50–60% signals a balanced market, not a buyer’s market.

4. Population Growth Is Slowing — But Still Positive
Calgary’s explosive growth is easing.

Calgary population growth forecast 2026: 1.3%
Down from ~3% in 2025

Alberta population growth forecast: 1.5%

Migration is returning to more normal levels:

• Interprovincial: ~6,244
• International: ~8,032

This will slow demand — but not reverse it.

5. Supply Has Surged Across Every Channel

This is the biggest story of the forecast.

Resale Inventory

• Rising from historically low levels
• Returning toward long-term norms

New Homes

• Record-high starts in 2025
• ~26,000 units
• 45% are rentals
• Apartments up 32% year-over-year
• Row homes up 14%
• Single-family down 4%

Rentals

• Vacancy rates rising
• Rental supply exploding
• Investors pulling back
• Rent growth slowing or reversing

This extra supply is weighing on condos and rentals most.

6. Condos Are Under the Most Pressure

CREB forecasts continued condo price softness:

• 2024: +15%
• 2025: −2.7%
• 2026: −3.5% (forecast)

Why?

• Apartment inventory up 27%
• 18,000 apartment units completing
• 63% are rentals
• Smaller units typically means lower condo fees
• Heavy competition from brand-new rentals

Certain areas (especially NE Calgary) already have 6–8 months of inventory.

7. Townhomes and Semi-Detached: Mixed Conditions

Townhome Pricing:

• 2024: +14%
• 2025: −2.1%
• 2026: −1.9% (forecast)

NE Calgary most impacted.

Semi-detached:

• Supply shrinking
• Prices holding better
• One of the tighter segments

8. Detached Homes: The Most Stable Segment

Detached pricing outlook:

• 2024: +10.8%
• 2025: +0.8%
• 2026 forecast: +0.1%

Only NE/E/N Calgary saw declines.

Key support factors:

• Less new detached supply
• Improved resale vs new-home price spreads
• Continued affordability vs Toronto & Vancouver
• First-time buyer GST relief

9. Rental Market: Vacancy Rising, Rent Growth Slowing
Purpose-built rental vacancy is rising.

Average 2-bedroom rents (2026 - based on purpose built rental data):

• NE / Fish Creek: $1,700
• NW: $1,816
• SE: $1,879
• SW: $2,069
• Inner City: $2,008

More rentals =
👉 Less rent growth
👉 Less urgency to buy
👉 More tenant leverage

10. Interest Rates Are Not Coming to the Rescue
CREB does not expect further rate cuts in 2026.

Why?

• Bond yields are flat
• Policy rates stable
• No major affordability boost coming from rates

This means the market must rebalance through supply and demand, not cheap money.

11. Calgary Housing Forecast for 2026 (CREB)
Sales: 22,200 (−2%)
Prices: −1% overall
Market condition: Balanced
Inventory: Elevated
Condo prices: Under pressure
Detached prices: Flat

12. Upside and Downside Risks
Upside Risks

• Stronger energy investment
• Emissions-cap removal
• Faster job growth
• Improved consumer confidence

Downside Risks

• Weaker oil prices
• CUSMA renegotiation
• Continued condo oversupply
• Mortgage renewal stress
• Job losses

Final Takeaway: What This Means for Buyers and Sellers in Calgary
This is a normalization year.
Not a crash.
Not a boom.

Buyers get more choice and negotiating power.

Sellers must price correctly and prepare properly.

Condos face the most pressure.

Detached homes remain the most stable.

Rentals are becoming more competitive.

Calgary remains one of Canada’s most affordable major cities — and long-term fundamentals are still strong.

Thinking About Buying or Selling in Calgary in 2026?
Understanding which segments are softening and which are holding value matters more than ever.

If you want a personalized strategy based on your home type, neighbourhood, and goals - we’d be happy to help.