Insights from ATB Chief Economist Mark Parsons
With trade tensions, global uncertainty, and political noise dominating headlines, many Canadians are wondering: Where is the economy really headed in 2026?
According to ATB Chief Economist Mark Parsons, Alberta — and especially Calgary — is entering 2026 in a far more resilient position than most people realize.
Here’s what matters most for Alberta’s economy, housing market, and long-term outlook.
1. Markets Are Calm Despite Global Chaos
Despite renewed U.S. trade war threats, geopolitical tension, and tariff headlines, markets are not panicking.
- Canada’s economy has weathered recent shocks well
- Employment growth has remained strong
- Investors are largely “shaking off” the noise
This signals confidence in the underlying fundamentals — especially in North America.
2. Canada Is Still Heavily Dependent on the U.S.
Despite years of talk about diversifying trade:
- 74% of Canada’s exports still go to the U.S. (down only slightly from 76% in 2024)
- Canada remains deeply tied to U.S. demand, making trade policy a major long-term risk.
3. Alberta Is the Least Exposed Province to U.S. Tariffs
While tariffs are hurting sectors like steel, aluminum, autos, and wood products, Alberta is in a unique position.
U.S. effective tariff exposure by province (Oct 2025):
- Quebec: 11.6%
- British Columbia: 11.0%
- Ontario: 7.4%
- Canada average: 6.4%
- Alberta: 1.8% (lowest in Canada)
4. Alberta’s Population Growth Is Still Surging
Alberta is the only province still experiencing strong population growth across all channels.
Fastest-growing CMAs in Canada (2025):
- Calgary: +2.9%
- Edmonton: +3.0%
What’s unusual:
Even with higher unemployment than some provinces, people are not leaving Alberta like they did in past cycles.
5. Housing Demand Is Being Driven by Affordability
Canadians are “chasing affordability.”
The price gap between major markets and Alberta has narrowed dramatically:
Feb 2022: $372,000 gap
Dec 2025: $162,000 gap
Calgary and Edmonton still offer homeownership opportunities that are out of reach in Toronto and Vancouver — fueling continued migration.
6. Housing Supply Is Still Playing Catch-Up
Population growth outpaced housing construction
Housing starts hit record highs but still lag demand
Starts will cool from peak levels but remain elevated
This keeps:
- Inventory tight
- Rents elevated
- Prices relatively supported
7. This Alberta Boom Is Different
Unlike past booms:
- Oil and gas investment is still $30B lower than previous peaks
- Production and exports are at record highs
- The economy is far more diversified
Growth is now coming from:
- Energy exports
- Technology
- Petrochemicals and hydrogen
- Agriculture
- Lithium and critical minerals
8. Interest Rates Won’t Fix Structural Issues
The Bank of Canada is expected to hold rates steady through 2026.
But Governor Tiff Macklem has been clear:
“Monetary policy cannot restore lost supply.
It cannot save you from tariffs.”
Lower rates won’t fix housing shortages or slow project approvals.
9. Alberta’s Energy Future Looks Stronger Than Headlines Suggest
Key developments:
Trans Mountain Expansion is sending oil to Asia
~$600M/month by late 2025
LNG exports began in 2025
~600 million cubic feet per day
Alberta-federal energy corridor agreement signed
New pipelines could unlock long-term investment
Alberta is now a global energy exporter — not just a U.S. supplier.
10. Alberta’s Growth Outlook Beats the National Average
ATB’s real GDP forecast for Alberta:
- High case: 3.6%
- Base case: 2.1%
- Low case: 0.2%
- Canada overall: ~1.5%
Even the base case puts Alberta ahead of the rest of the country.
What This Means for Calgary Real Estate
The fundamentals supporting Calgary’s housing market remain strong:
- Continued population growth
- Chronic housing undersupply
- Stable interest rates
- Diversifying economy
- Strong energy exports
- Interprovincial migration driven by affordability
This doesn’t guarantee rapid price growth — but it does support long-term housing demand and market stability.
Thinking About Buying or Selling in Calgary in 2026?
Understanding where the economy is heading matters when making a real estate decision.
If you’d like a data-driven, local perspective on Calgary’s housing market and how these economic trends affect your buying or selling strategy, we'd be happy to help.